2022 Early Hearing Detection & Intervention Virtual Conference
March 13 - 15, 2022
5/21/2018 | 9:15 AM - 9:30 AM | USING STOCHASTIC STATE-AND-TRANSITION MODELS TO EXPLORE POPULATION RESPONSES TO DROUGHT CYCLES. | 310 B
USING STOCHASTIC STATE-AND-TRANSITION MODELS TO EXPLORE POPULATION RESPONSES TO DROUGHT CYCLES.
Climate variability and change pose significant threats to aquatic biodiversity, particularly in areas with low and variable runoff. Quantifying the magnitude of risk from these threats is made more difficult by the variable responses of individual species to hydrologic stress. For example, patterns of population decline and recovery in response to drought cycles will depend on both the resistance traits (e.g. tolerance to harsh environmental conditions) and resilience traits (e.g. fecundity, age at maturity). Collectively these traits can give rise to varied, and lagged patterns of decline and recovery in response to hydrologic variability, which ultimately can affect population viability in drought prone environments. Such population cycles are typically modelled based on demographic rates (mortality and recruitment) under different climate conditions. However, such models are relatively data hungry, limiting their widespread development. A less precise but more tractable approach is to adopt state-and-transition approaches based on semi-quantitative population states (or population size estimates), and modelled transitions between states under different hydrologic conditions. Here we demonstrate the application of such models to a suite of diverse taxa, highlighting the large uncertainties that can arise when taking into account stochastic state-transitions.
- Hydrology
- Modeling
- Stochasticity
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Presenters/Authors
Nick Bond
(), La Trobe University, n.bond@latrobe.edu.au;
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Avril Horne
(), The University of Melbourne, avril.horne@unimelb.edu.au;
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