2022 Early Hearing Detection & Intervention Virtual Conference
March 13 - 15, 2022
5/21/2019 | 3:00 PM - 3:15 PM | DO DRIER CONDITIONS INFLUENCE STATE TRANSITIONS IN STREAM FISHES? A CASE STUDY WITH MINNOWS IN A SOUTHEASTERN US RIVER BASIN | 250 CF
DO DRIER CONDITIONS INFLUENCE STATE TRANSITIONS IN STREAM FISHES? A CASE STUDY WITH MINNOWS IN A SOUTHEASTERN US RIVER BASIN
In a changing world, tools for predicting population responses to shifting environmental conditions will be useful. As freshwater ecologists, we recognize the influence of flow on lotic communities, but approaches for predicting temporal state changes due to hydrologic variation remain underdeveloped. Here, we use a dynamic model of stream fish abundance states (absent, present, abundant) to evaluate the hypothesis that drier hydrologic conditions influence the probabilities of state transitions in a group of 20 minnows. Fish data were collected from 40 sites throughout the Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint River Basin between 2011 and 2017, and we used a spatially distributed, deterministic, physically-based hydrologic model to generate site-specific median flow values. Preliminary model results suggest that drier conditions may limit the resilience of stream fish communities, as the probability of colonization decreased when median flows diminished. Additionally, results indicated that the probability of minnows remaining abundant also decreased during drier conditions. Interestingly, drier conditions did not appear to exert as much influence on the probability of extirpation. Dynamic modeling approaches offer great promise for generating empirically-driven estimates of state changes over time, thereby facilitating evaluation of hypothesized links between environmental changes and population responses.
- Hydrology
- Modeling
- Temporal
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Presenters/Authors
Kit Wheeler
(), TN Tech University, kitwheeler@gmail.com;
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Mary Freeman
(), US Geological Survey, mcfreeman@usgs.gov;
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Seth Wenger
(), Odum School of Ecology, University of Georgia, swenger@uga.edu;
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Jessica Davis
(), University of Georgia, Athens, JessicaLdavis17@gmail.com;
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Jacob LaFontaine
(), USGS, jlafonta@usgs.gov;
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