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5/21/2018 | 9:15 AM - 9:30 AM | MODELED WEEKLY TOTAL PHOSPHORUS LOADS FOR ALL UNITED STATES RIVERS FEEDING THE GREAT LAKES | 430 B

MODELED WEEKLY TOTAL PHOSPHORUS LOADS FOR ALL UNITED STATES RIVERS FEEDING THE GREAT LAKES

High phosphorus loads from rivers have been identified as an important driver of excessive algal growth in the Great Lakes, and are therefore a major concern for regional management efforts. High-quality estimates of nutrient loading are needed at a large spatial extent but fine temporal resolution to support regional decision making about nutrient load targets, algal responses to nutrients, and watershed prioritization. Landscape factors like urban and agricultural land uses interact with climatic factors and weather to drive nutrient concentrations in streams and rivers. Such landscape controls on nutrient loading (and their proxies) have been used successfully in the past to estimate nutrient loading to the Great Lakes, but at coarse time steps or for subsets of watersheds only. Here, we describe a simple but accurate approach to estimate total phosphorus loads, and predictions of weekly total phosphorus loading to the Great Lakes from all major tributaries (N = 1,532) over a 14 year time span. Performance of the approach for spatial and temporal load prediction are presented, and model applications for management decision support explored.

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Hydrology
Pollution

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Presenters/Authors

Peter Esselman (), U.S. Geological Survey, Great Lakes Science Center, pesselman@usgs.gov;