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MARCH 2-5, 2021

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5/21/2018 | 9:30 AM - 9:45 AM | PREDICTING ENVIRONMENTAL TRAJECTORIES OF CHANGE UNDER A VARIABLE AND UNCERTAIN FUTURE | 310 B

PREDICTING ENVIRONMENTAL TRAJECTORIES OF CHANGE UNDER A VARIABLE AND UNCERTAIN FUTURE

In Australia's Murray-Darling Basin, consumptive water use together with large variability in annual river flows has often resulted in declines in environmental condition in many river systems. The Murray-Darling Basin Plan establishes a policy mechanism to improve environmental outcomes through the recovery of water to be used for environmental purposes. Understanding how to best use this environmental water, as well as how environmental condition is tracking towards Basin Plan targets requires both understanding how environmental condition changes through time, and by having a probabilistic view of possible future flow conditions. Trajectory modelling aims to address these needs by forecasting a plausible range of environmental outcomes into the future. Recent advances in ecological modelling approaches used within the Basin, including the development of methods that link temporal sequencing of flow events to environmental change, facilitate the modelling of environmental trajectories. The aim of the trajectories project under the MDBA-CSIRO Eco-hydrology partnership is to develop a modelling approach to predict spatial and temporal trajectories of ecological change as a result of water management and climate variability.

Spatial
Biodiversity
Climate

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Presenters/Authors

Danial Stratford (), CSIRO, Danial.Stratford@csiro.au;