EARLY HEARING DETECTION AND INTERVENTION VIRTUAL CONFERENCE
MARCH 2-5, 2021
(Virtually the same conference, without elevators, airplane tickets, or hotel room keys)
5/22/2018 | 11:15 AM - 11:30 AM | UNDERSTANDING THE RESPONSE OF GREAT LAKES ICE COVERAGE TO CLIMATE CHANGE USING A HIERARCHICAL THRESHOLD MODEL | 410 A
UNDERSTANDING THE RESPONSE OF GREAT LAKES ICE COVERAGE TO CLIMATE CHANGE USING A HIERARCHICAL THRESHOLD MODEL
Lakes whitefish (Coregonus clupeaformis) is an important fishery in the Great Lakes region. Overfishing and habitat alterations have led to decreased fish populations in some areas within their native range. Whitefish populations have been the focus of recent efforts, such as habitat restoration. However, an important condition for whitefish recruitment is winter ice cover in their spawning areas. The impact of climate change on lake ice cover, therefore, is becoming an increasingly important factor. As the long-term average temperature change pattern can be described by the hockey stick model, variables that respond to temperature, such as a lake’s maximum ice coverage, may also be modeled using the same model. We present a multilevel hockey stick model that is applied to Great Lakes ice coverage data to model the change in peak ice coverage over time. Using the multilevel nature of the model, we are able to quantify the year that peak ice coverage started to decline and the magnitude of decline for each lake individually and for the region as a whole -- which can assist managers in deciding the allocation resources for habitat restoration and other management.
- Climate Change
- Fish
- Great Lakes
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Presenters/Authors
Stephanie Nummer
(), University of Toledo, steph.annie.nummer@gmail.com ;
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Zachary Amidon
(), University of Toledo, Zachary.Amidon@utoledo.edu;
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Song Qian
(), The University of Toledo, song.qian@utoledo.edu;
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