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5/22/2018  |   3:00 PM - 3:15 PM   |  SUNSET ON STATIONARITY: THE IMPLICATIONS OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND VARIABILITY AND ON THE ASSESSMENT OF ENVIRONMENTAL FLOW REGIMES   |  410 A

SUNSET ON STATIONARITY: THE IMPLICATIONS OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND VARIABILITY AND ON THE ASSESSMENT OF ENVIRONMENTAL FLOW REGIMES

The Natural Flow Paradigm provides the conceptual underpinning of much current environmental flows science and management. When applied in current environmental flows assessments, the natural flow regime is defined based on the range and variation of flows over recent history, with empirical or statistical modelling used to compare impacted and natural reference conditions. There are three considerations for this current approach. Firstly, most approaches to modelling flow-ecology relationships do not represent the internal dynamics of ecological processes, and assume stationarity in driving variables. Secondly, the use of historical streamflows observations to underpin assessments provides only a single representation of potential future sequences. Thirdly, there is an implicit assumption of a stationary climate, yet we know changing climate will significantly alter flow regimes. We argue that significant conceptual changes are required in the Anthropocene to the way we model and determine environmental water needs. To demonstrate, we use a hypothetical species across a range of real river systems with different flow variability. We challenge scientists and managers to reconsider some of the basic assumptions that continue to underpin both the hydrological analysis and ecological models used to inform ecological flows assessments.

  • Hydrology
  • Policy
  • Vision and Change

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Presenters/Authors

Avril Horne (), The University of Melbourne, avril.horne@unimelb.edu.au;


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Rory Nathan (), The University of Melbourne, rory.nathan@unimelb.edu.au;


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Nick Bond (), La Trobe University, n.bond@latrobe.edu.au;


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LeRoy Poff (), Colorado State University, n.poff@rams.colostate.edu;


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J. Angus Webb (), University of Melbourne, angus.webb@unimelb.edu.au;


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Jun Wang (), The University of Melbourne, junw6@student.unimelb.edu.au;


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