2023 Early Hearing Detection & Intervention Conference
March 5-7, 2023 • Cincinnati, OH
5/25/2021 | 2:00 PM - 3:30 PM | MODELLING OUR WAY OUT OF EXTREME EVENTS | Virtual Platform
MODELLING OUR WAY OUT OF EXTREME EVENTS
Extreme events such as anomalous floods and droughts will continue to increase in frequency and severity with ongoing climate change. This presents a major challenge for protecting the biodiversity that inhabits freshwaters globally. Faced with insufficient information about how ecosystems might respond to such events over both short and long timescales, managers may be forced to make decisions that lack sufficient scientific credibility. Here, I present a review of extreme events in running waters and their potential to shift ecosystems into new states, generate ecological lock-ins, and alter freshwater biodiversity across the globe, with a particular focus on potential outcomes into an uncertain future. I outline potential modelling solutions to the challenges associated with increased extreme events, including the emerging field of near-term ecological forecasting and more mechanistic approaches particularly suited to far-term scenario-based projections such as community-wide matrix population models.
- Climate change
- Flow regime
- Biodiversity
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Presenters/Authors
Jonathan Tonkin
(), University of Canterbury, jonathan.tonkin@canterbury.ac.nz;
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