2023 Early Hearing Detection & Intervention Conference
March 5-7, 2023 • Cincinnati, OH
6/05/2017 | 11:00 AM - 11:15 AM | ASSESSING THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON LAKE FISHES IN MICHIGAN | 306C
ASSESSING THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON LAKE FISHES IN MICHIGAN
We assessed the sensitivity of lake habitat and fishes to future climate change for 6,500 lakes in Michigan. We first developed a model to estimate the seasonal thermal regime of lakes based on mean annual air temperature and lake size. We then developed boosted regression tree models to predict presence-absence of 25 fish species under current climate conditions. Model accuracies ranged from 60 to 80% and included variables that characterize lake position, size, connectivity, and thermal regime. We then used these models to estimate statewide patterns of species distribution and to assess how these patterns will change under 13 regionally downscaled climate change scenarios. Sensitivity of lake habitat and fishes varied spatially and by thermal guild. Northern lakes experienced the largest change in habitat suitability while southern Michigan lakes were more resilient. The number of lakes suitable for warmwater species showed modest increases while the number of lakes suitable for cool- and coldwater species declined dramatically. Our lake-specific assessment enables managers to identify sensitive water bodies and species and to develop appropriate management and conservation strategies.
- C20 Climate Change
- C12 Conservation Ecology
- S10 Understanding and predicting the effects of climate change on lake and stream fishes
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Presenters/Authors
Kevin Wehrly
(), Michigan Department of Natural Resources, wehrlyk@michigan.gov;
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James Breck
(), University of Michigan, breck@umich.edu;
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Lizhu Wang
(), International Joint Commission, Great Lakes Office, wangl@windsor.ijc.org;
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Arthur Cooper
(), Department of Fisheries and Wildlife, Michigan State University, coopera6@msu.edu;
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