2023 Early Hearing Detection & Intervention Conference

March 5-7, 2023 • Cincinnati, OH

6/06/2017 | 11:00 AM - 11:15 AM | Predicting cyanobacteria dominance in a shallow eutrophic reservoir | 306B

Predicting cyanobacteria dominance in a shallow eutrophic reservoir

Cyanobacteria blooms are increasingly recognized as a threat to the integrity of freshwater reservoirs, diminishing their value as water supplies, wildlife habitats, and recreational areas. While cyanobacteria have been studied for decades, our ability to predict and mitigate the formation of these blooms remains limited. In this study, we explore factors driving cyanobacteria dominance in a shallow eutrophic reservoir in the southeastern United States (Jordan Lake). Our ongoing study focuses on linkages between blooms, artificial mixing, and climate variability; as understanding these relationships is critical to cyanobacteria management. Here, we present results from a multi-year monitoring effort of the reservoir’s thermal regime, mixing rates, phytoplankton, and other water quality characteristics. Based on the thermal regime data and meteorological inputs, we develop a mechanistic turbulent diffusion model that is applied to estimate temperature and vertical mixing rates throughout time. Furthermore, we develop a multi-level statistical model to explore relationships among cyanobacteria, mixing, and other biophyiscal factors. Current results indicate that vertical mixing may play an important role in modulating cyanobacteria dominance, though additional data and modeling are required to better isolate the different mechanisms affecting bloom formation.

C24 Eutrophication
C36 Water Resource Management
S20 Understanding physical controls on cyanobacteria dominance: toward prediction and prevention

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Presenters/Authors

Daniel Obenour (), NC State University, drobenour@ncsu.edu;