2023 Early Hearing Detection & Intervention Conference

March 5-7, 2023 • Cincinnati, OH

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6/08/2017 | 12:15 PM - 12:30 PM | THE CRAYFISH INVASIVENESS RISK ASSESSMENT MODEL (CIRAM): A BAYESIAN BELIEF NETWORK FOR ASSESSING RISK POSED BY NON-NATIVE CRAYFISH | 305A

THE CRAYFISH INVASIVENESS RISK ASSESSMENT MODEL (CIRAM): A BAYESIAN BELIEF NETWORK FOR ASSESSING RISK POSED BY NON-NATIVE CRAYFISH

Invasive crayfishes can substantively transform ecosystems, economies, and cultures. Currently, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) uses a semi-quantitative, rapid risk screening to assess risk of invasiveness posed by non-native crayfish. This screening tool characterizes uncertainty about risk only in broad categories. To better quantify uncertainty, the USFWS assembled a team of crayfish and policy experts to develop a more predictive risk assessment tool focused on non-native crayfishes. The Bayesian belief network structure of the new tool treats uncertainty as an integral component of the model, can be applied flexibly, and is accessible to individuals with a wide range of statistical abilities. Key model elements include historical or projected effects of non-native species on native species, ecosystems, and humans; potential for concurrent introduction of pathogens or commensals; potential for transport; reproductive capacity; and climate and habitat suitability. Crayfish species independently classified as “high risk” or “low risk” were used to train and test the model structure. The resulting tool will provide the USFWS and its partners with a quantitative and flexible mechanism for assessing crayfish invasion risk.

C26 Invasive Species
C12 Conservation Ecology
S12 Challenges, insights, and opportunities in crayfish conservation and ecology

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Presenters/Authors

Katherine Wyman-Grothem (), United States Fish and Wildlife Service, katherine_wyman@fws.gov;