2023 Early Hearing Detection & Intervention Conference
March 5-7, 2023 • Cincinnati, OH
5/22/2019 | 10:00 AM - 10:15 AM | DECLINE IN HABITAT SUITABILITY LIMITS EFFICACY OF STREAM REFUGIA UNDER CLIMATE CHANGE | 250 AB
DECLINE IN HABITAT SUITABILITY LIMITS EFFICACY OF STREAM REFUGIA UNDER CLIMATE CHANGE
Climate change vulnerability depends on organisms dispersing across landscapes rapidly enough to keep pace with suitable temperatures. Freshwater faunas are vulnerable because dispersal is constrained within stream networks, but bifurcating topology may provide slow-velocity dispersal pathways via cold tributaries. We assessed whether 233 fish species can keep pace with shifting isotherms in the southern Appalachian Mountains, USA. We combined multi-model ensembles to project isotherm shift velocities and species’ occurrences across 50,384 stream reaches with species-specific dispersal velocities to forecast which species are vulnerable and where. For low and high greenhouse gas emissions scenarios, we estimate isotherms will shift along mainstem pathways at median rates of 1.18 and 2.35 km·decade-1, respectively, versus only 0.27 and 0.53 km·decade-1 for tributaries. Dispersal velocities of small species occupying low-gradient streams are most likely to fall short of shifting isotherms. Although slow-velocity tributaries reduce the number of species experiencing dispersal deficits by 5.3% and 92.4%, persistence in tributaries will be countered by a mean 10.9% reduction in habitat suitability (versus 1.9% for mainstems). This reveals tradeoffs shaping the efficacy of thermal refugia, highlighting the importance of climate change abatement to curtail biodiversity loss in streams.
- ClimateChange
- Dispersal
- Modeling
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Presenters/Authors
Matthew Troia
(), University of Texas San Antonio, troiamj@gmail.com;
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Anna Kaz
(), University of Tennessee, akaz@vols.utk.edu;
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Cameron Niemeyer
(), University of Tennessee, jniemeye@vols.utk.edu;
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Xingli Giam
(), University of Tennessee, xgiam@utk.edu;
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