2023 Early Hearing Detection & Intervention Conference
March 5-7, 2023 • Cincinnati, OH
9/26/2018 | 4:30 PM - 4:45 PM | Why is Carrying Capacity of Lesser Prairie Chicken Populations Declining Across the Southern Great Plains? | Eccles Conference Center Auditorium
Why is Carrying Capacity of Lesser Prairie Chicken Populations Declining Across the Southern Great Plains?
Stochastic growth models offer a powerful tool to evaluate long-term population dynamics of Lesser Prairie Chicken (Tympanuchus pallidicinctus) by integrating analysis of both density-dependent and density independent factors affecting annual rates of change into a single analysis. Of 26 stochastic growth models to describe the observed dynamics of 4 Lesser Prairie Chicken populations attending leks across the species range from 1964 to 2016 the Gompertz model with declining carrying capacities (-1.8% to -9.6% per year) is statistically superior to the 25 alternative models. The best models imply substantially different probabilities of persistence for the 4 populations (100% to 70% in short-term, 15% to 0% in long-term). Applying sensitivity analysis to the best range-wide stochastic population growth model incorporating predictive covariates indicates that carrying capacity of the Southern Great Plains declines 17% per 1.0 unit decrease in Palmer Drought Severity Index, decreases 2.6% per 1,000 active oil and gas wells operating across the region and decreases 1.4% per thousand acres covered by conifers. By contrast, conversion of agricultural fields to Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) areas planted with native short-grass prairie species increases carrying capacity by 6.2% per thousand acres. We found potentially profound negative influence in the future due to ongoing climate change across the Southern Great Plains. Policy changes such as increased support for CRP conversions of agricultural commodity production to natural grasslands and reductions in new oil and gas drilling could ameliorate future declines in carrying capacity for this threatened species.
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Presenters/Authors
Edward Oz Garton
(), University of Idaho, oz@turbonet.com;
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Christian Hagen
(), Oregon State University, Christian.Hagen@oregonstate.edu;
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Adam Wells
(), University of Idaho, adamwells26@hotmail.com;
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John Abatzogolou
(), jabatzoglou@uidaho.edu;
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